Fantasy Preview: DeMar DeRozan

It’s been quite an offseason debate among the Raptors’ faithful as to whether DeMar DeRozan is best suited to beginning the season as the starter at shooting guard, or spending some time coming off the bench to get acclimated with the NBA.  The 6′7″ USC standout certainly impressed during Summer League, and even answered some of the critics that questioned his shooting ability and defense.  There’s no denying that DeRozan has all of the physical tools to be a solid fantasy pick-up for years to come, but it might be too early to expect him to contribute as a reliable source of production right off the bat.

DeRozan didn’t exactly have the most consistent start to his freshman campaign at USC.  It wasn’t until down the stretch when DeRozan averaged nearly 20 points and a tick over 8 rebounds per game that his name began come up in lottery talk.  Now he enters an ideal situation with the Toronto Raptors who happen to lack a true proven option on the wing.  Coming into camp, DeRozan was competing for a starter’s job with Marco Belinelli, Antoine Wright, and Quincy Douby.  It’s also likely that Jarrett Jack will see some minutes at the two as well.  DeRozan certainly has the support of his coach in his efforts to win the job, but after a summer honeymoon period it’s been a lot tougher for the 20-year old in a couple of pre-season games.

Triano hasn’t given DeRozan any free-rides; he was yanked out of last Wednesday’s loss to Philadelphia after making a couple of terrible decisions shooting the ball.  DeRozan responded to his coach’s tough-love on Friday by picking up a sloppy 11 points against Minnesota, but poured in 19 on Sunday versus Washington when the Raps won their second pre-season contest in a row.  Triano will have a difficult decision to make on how to handle this young specimen of athleticism.

Decision making for prospective fantasy owners heading into their drafts will be much simpler; DeRozan is a quality pick-up in later rounds for keeper and deep leagues where he can be stashed away, and unless your league counts growing pains there should be no reason to jump the gun on grabbing him.  If he wins the starting gig, then obviously his value will be much more pronounced out of the gate.  Still, his fantasy contributions on a revamped Raptors’ roster won’t propel him into the top two tiers of shooting guards.  When Rasual Butler and Daequan Cook start flying off the board, consider it time to strike on DeMar.

The problem with trying to predict value with players like DeMar DeRozan is that the raw athleticism and versatility that he possesses may round out much sooner, or later, than anyone could have imagined.  It’s choosing when to appropriately gamble on those qualities during your draft that can either reward or impede owners’ efforts to win their league.  You really don’t know what you’re going to get with most of the 2009 draft-class, then again you don’t want to be kicking yourself three weeks into the season for blowing a chance on a hot rookie.

The Verdict:

Play it safe.  DeMar DeRozan is the most athletic and exciting player the Raptors have had since you know who.  It took the original “Air Canada” a couple of months to get comfortable with the speed of the NBA game, and even though some project DeRozan to have a more sound natural skill-set than Vince Carter, not to mention coachability, it’s unlikely that he jumps off the stat-sheet from opening night.

Expect numbers similar to those of Anthony Morrow and Rudy Fernandez in 2008-09, but don’t hope for too much more until his minutes are more defined.

Tags: Demar DeRozan, Fantasy Basketball, NBA, Toronto Raptors